Bowling Heads: Time to Recap

With the NCAA bowl season concluding following next week's National Title game its time to recap the bowl season and the ups and downs we experienced. My final bowl record stands at 9-6 plus 16 stars (10-6 if you count Minny) for a profit of $1380 at $100 a star. As I indicated from day #1 if you stick with me and trust me, you will walk away a winner! Although I'm somewhat satisfied with the final outcome and late Christmas present, overall I think we can learn alot from the inaugural Bowling Heads package. Below is a summary of the games played and the results as well as a few lessons for next season.



Recap

Thursday Dec. 21 3* Play on Oregon LOSS
Saturday Dec. 23 3* Play on South Florida WIN
Saturday Dec. 23 3* Play on Tulsa LOSS
Sunday Dec. 24 4* Play on Arizona State LOSS
Wednesday Dec. 27 4* Play on Florida State WIN
Thursday Dec. 28 5* Play on Kansas State LOSS
Friday Dec. 29 3* Play on Missouri WIN
Friday Dec. 29 3* Play on Houston LOSS
Friday Dec. 29 4* Play on Minnesota WIN (but pulled)
Saturday Dec. 30 3* Play on Navy WIN
Saturday Dec. 30 4* Play on Georgia WIN
Saturday Dec. 30 4* Play on Iowa WIN
Monday Jan. 1 4* Play on Penn State WIN
Monday Jan. 1 4* Play on Nebraska Loss
Monday Jan. 1 10* Game of the Year Play on USC WIN
Monday Jan. 1 3* Play on Boise State WIN

Lessons Learned

1. Bet on favorites early and the dogs when the bowl season gets a rockin'. Did you know that the favorites started 6-2 in this years bowl season? Following tonight's Louisville game the tally was 16-12 in favor of the dogs. Isn't it funny how the small money games went 6-2 and then Vegas cleaned up, going 14-6 when the big bread was on the line?

2. Always bet on the better coach. Is it a coincidence that Bowden, Paterno, Carroll, and Schiano all mopped up this post season? I don't think so. Experience wins!

3. Whatever side your friends think is right...is usually wrong. I was laughed at for my 10* GOY selection with USC over Michigan. I was literally told to get the "f" out of here when I told my buddy that Boise State would beat Oklahoma. When I told my neighbor next door that PSU was a gimmie he told me to go back to State College. Bottom line...the public is usually wrong!

My final thought this season is an easy one. Come back to the SixTalkingHeads to win big throughout the NFL Playoff Season and the NCAA Basketball tourney....that's where we really make our money!

As promised, the Inaugural Bowling Heads season was a success. Oh, and one more thing, ask your buddy at the water cooler today who is going to win the Notre Dame/LSU game. I think you'll know exactly what side to bet on (shhhh...play on the Irish +8 (take the points)). Tell your friends though that the Irish will win straight up. Just like I told you before...you are going to have to trust me.

Best of Luck,

Pikes

Bowling Heads: A Bowling Finale!

It's time for Week #3 of the inaugural Pike's Bowling Heads Package! To date I am 6-5 up $120 plus 3 Stars (juice included). I should be 7-5 (plus $520 up 7 stars), but I made a bone-headed play by pulling my Minnesota/Texas Tech winner last Friday! Oh well, in gambling you have to remember to NEVER look back. Now, onto this week's plays....

January 1, 2006: Auburn versus Nebraska

Nebraska has had plenty of ups and downs this season. A win in this game will cement a solid 10-4 season and put the program back on top in the NCAA. Knowing that Nebraska is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss sits well with us. Throw in the Tigers 0-6 ATS mark in their last 6 games following a S.U. win and I think we have a 4 Star Winner! Go Huskers!

4* Play on Nebraska (+2)


January 1, 2006: Tennessee versus Penn State

Call me biased, but Penn State is going to beat Tennessee. I hate Tennessee and I love Penn State, but as a handicapper I've learned to bet on and bet against anyone regardless of whether or not if it is my alma mater. Joe Pa has performed well in the past in bowl games and playing a tough Big Ten schedule won't hurt the Lions in this game. Although Anthony Morelli worries me at times, I expect the Penn State defense to keep the Lions within 3 points. Take the points as Tennessee lays a big egg here today. Penn State's 5-1 ATS mark in their last 6 games following an ATS loss tells us that the Lions will roar!

4* Play on the Penn State Nittany Lions (+4)


January 1, 2006: USC versus Michigan

I'm not sure what to think of Michigan getting booted out of the big game. Sure, Ohio State beat Michigan earlier this year, but it was possibly the best game of the year! Is Michigan disappointed that they aren't battling for a National Title? Absolutely, and when this happens the teams that got the shaft tend to disappoint their backers. USC (who also had their season spoiled in the final game) has the better team here today and will be playing with a lot of emotion after losing to the Bruins. I know I wouldn't want to be close to Pete Carroll after a loss. Knowing that USC is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to score 20 points and 5-0 ATS versus the Big Ten raises an eyebrow or two. The Wolves 0-6 ATS mark versus the Pac-10 gives us a combined 16-0 inside the game trend! Now you know why this is my 10* Game of the Year! Don't look back.

10* Play on USC (+2.5)


January 1, 2006: Oklahoma versus Boise State

Are you kidding me? Boise State in a BCS game? You bet your sweet blue field! Boise State may not be the typical BCS team, but when it comes to playing football they know how to hang with the best of them. Could Boise do the impossible and go undefeated? Believe it or not I actually think they might. Although Oklahoma won't be a pushover it will definitely be a great game to watch! Will the country rethink the BCS when an undefeated team ends up #7 in the country? Maybe a playoff system is what college football really needs, but we will leave that debate for another day. Remember that the Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. Boise hangs.

3* Play on Boise State (+7.5)


I may have one or two more plays so make sure you come back soon!

Best of Luck,

Pikes

Bowling Heads: Week 2 Part B Winners Edition!

If you are reading this you were lucky enough to stumble across my Bowling Heads: Winners Edition! First off, I want to tell you that I received a phone call from Vegas last night and they told me they were done giving out freebies to the public. So far, I have been crushed on my inaugural Bowling Heads Package and its really taking a toll on my bankroll. To date I stand a disappointing 1-3 down 7 stars and $800 bucks at $100 a star (juice included). When I wrote my first Bowling Heads piece I told you that you needed to stay the course with me through good times and bad. Some of you probably already bailed on me. Some of you are probably cursing at me under your breath as you read this and some of my friends....well...they probably are trying to disown me. Just remember that I promised you a successful bowl season if you stayed the course. After 8 Bowl games, the favorites are 6-2. I think its time for Vegas to reverse course....Pike's style!

Get ready to win BIG.


December 27, 2006: UCLA versus Florida State

With a loss today Florida State will have its second losing season in the Bobby Bowden era. So far, Dr. Bowden has coached at FSU for 30 seasons, with his only losing season being his first year on the job. After today's game Bobby will be thanking his players as they keep the 30-year streak in tact. UCLA is 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games (including a knockout blow to then National Championship contender USC). Teams that go into the bowl season coming off three straight ATS wins tend to fair poorly in their bowl game. Today will be no different. I'm expecting FSU to go wild out of the gates and blow out UCLA by more than two touchdowns. Remember that FSU is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a dog. I want you to take the points tonight, but remember my prediction.

4* Play on Florida State Seminoles +3.5

December 28, 2006: Rutgers versus Kansas State

You found it! Today's play is my 2006 NCAA Bowl Game of the Year! [Not to be confused with my 10* 2007 Bowl Game of the Year!] Today's 5* Play takes us to the Texas Bowl where I am expecting the unthinkable to occur. Yes, I know you are shaking your head, but this is my bold prediction: Rutgers is going to lose to Kansas State. How do I know? Simple, Kansas State is playing for a lot more than Rutgers. Rutgers is still disappointed that they couldn't clinch a BCS bowl after losing to WVU in triple overtime. Sure, Greg Schiano is the better coach and Rutgers has more talent, but with emotions flaring and disappointment looming you don't want to be with the public on this one today. Could Rutgers win the game? Absolutely. We know that the Wildcats are 10-4 ATS after a straight up loss and 6-2 ATS after an ATS loss! It looks like those trends equate to another lopsided dog play. Wildcats Ho!

5* Play on Kansas State Wildcats +9

December 29, 2006: Oregon State versus Missouri

I won't go into too much detail regarding this game because my thinking is somewhat skewed. I think the trends work enough in my favor here that I really don't need to say much. The Beavers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Throw in Mizzou's 5-1 ATS mark in their last 6 games as a dog of 3.5 to 10 pts and their 4-1 ATS mark in their last 5 non-conference games and you can see why I'm lovin' Mizzou in this one. Oh yeah, they are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Call up Vegas and tell them to Mizzou You!

3* Play on Missouri Tigers +3.5

December 29, 2006: South Carolina versus Houston

Overrated! Can anyone tell me why the Gamecocks aren't the most overrated team in the NCAA? The public loves Steve Spurrier and how he constantly blows out "lesser" teams. Houston knows this and will be waiting for him as they show the Gamecocks some stiff competition. Did you know that the Houston Cougars are a remarkable 4-0 ATS versus teams with a winning record and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win? We know a limp Gamecock when we see em'. Go Cougars!

3* Play on Houston Cougars +6

December 29, 2006: Minnesota versus Texas Tech

DO NOT PLAY THIS GAME. I used to like Minnesota, but not with how the line is moving. Pass on it!

December 30, 2006: Boston College versus Navy

Are you sick of me yet? I'm sure you are probably thinking: "How in the world are all of these dogs going to come through?" Trust me...stay the course! The public is all over this overrated B.C. squad. Get ready, because Navy is about to bring out their biggest arsenal yet. The country will be backing the Midshipmen today as they take it to the Boston College Eagles. I have no doubt in my mind that Navy can hang with the Eagles and maybe even sneak out with a "W". Look for B.C. to lay an egg here today. The Midshipman's 5-0 ATS mark in their last 5 versus the ACC cements it.

4* Play on Navy Midshipmen +6.5

December 30, 2006: Texas versus Iowa

Did you ever wonder why the Big Ten doesn't get any credit? It always seems like the Oklahoma's, Nebraska's, and the Texas's run the NCAA Football world. Not today. The Hawkeyes are back with a vegence. With QB Tate at the helm, I'm expecting a knockout performance versus the Longhorns. The Longhorns are a disappointing 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 3.5-10 pts. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games as a fave of 3.5-10 points! Can someone please tell Matthew McConaughey to put a shirt on!

3* Play on Iowa Hawkeyes +9

December 30, 2006: Virginia Tech versus Georgia

Va Tech could be one of the biggest frauds of the year. I have no idea why they are #14 in the country when they didn't beat a formidable opponent all season long. Finally, they will get their chance today versus a banged up Georgia team. However, these bulldogs aren't full of bs. Georgia is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games versus the ACC and they are 5-2-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record. Sorry Virginia, but Georgia is the real king of the South.

4* Play on Georgia Bulldogs +2.5

Stay the course and I promise you will be a winner!

Best of Luck,

Pikes

Bowling Heads: Week 2 Part A

I know everyone is busy around the Holidays, so I won't waste your time today with a lengthy intro. Due to a few last minute injuries, I haven't had a chance to narrow down my final week 2 bowl winners so this is really just Part One of a two part series. Thus far I'm a disappointing 1-2 in my Bowling Heads Plays, down 3 stars. However, I plan to bounce back today with my first 4 star play. Since I have another solid play on December 27th, you'll be sure to hear from me before then.

December 24, 2006: Arizona State +7.5 over Hawaii

Sure Hawaii is at home today in the 2006 Hawaii Bowl, but that doesn't necessarily spell doom for the Sun Devils. When a bowl team has the opportunity to play in front of its home crowd, it is usually money in the bank. However, the trends surrounding today's contest are a little too hard to overlook. The Devils come into the Hawaii Bowl with a 4-0 ATS mark in their last 4 against WAC opponents. They are also a convincing 6-1 ATS in their last 7 night games. Although most teams travel to Hawaii in search of vacation, the Devils will be thinking Victory today. Knowing that their season has been full of disappointments, I expect a solid performance from them in front of plenty of alumni on vacation. With the Rainbow Warriors at 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. teams with a winning road record and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs Pac-10 opponents, we really like our Christmas present.

4* Play on Arizona State +7.5


Happy Holidays,

Pikes

Bowling Heads: Week 1

The NCAA College Football Season concludes with quite possibly the greatest of all events. No, not the NFL Superbowl or the NCAA Basketball March Madness tournament, but the NCAA College Football Bowl Bonanza! In less than one month, the NCAA throws a whopping 30 crazy games at you on almost everyday of the week, just for your gambling pleasure. Since this is my first year capping at the SixTalkingHeads, I wanted to give everyone reading a little extra incentive to come back each and every day. What special incentive could I give you for being such a loyal TalkingHeads Fanatic? How about some extra holiday spending cash? Get ready for the inaugural Pike's NCAA "Bowling Heads" Package!

My College Bowl System is quite simple, but I need you to do three things in order to make it work. Rule #1, you are going to have to trust me. Yes, I know that's probably not easy considering you don't even know who I am, but believe me when I say that the odds are I know a little more about sports handicapping than you do. Rule #2, designate a dollar amount per star and follow my star system exactly as I tell you too. If you do not follow this step, I cannot make you a successful gambler, nor can I guarantee you come out ahead after the College Football Season concludes. Rule #3, do not play your own games. I don't care if your brother, mother, or uncle (your great uncle) tells you it's his mortal lock of the millennium. Forget about him, he's nothing. Now for a brief explanation of my star system.



Throughout the 30 game bowl season I will rate my plays from 3 stars to 10 stars. The higher the star rating, the stronger the play. For instance, my typical play ranges anywhere from 3 to 4 stars. During the Bowl Season, I usually play one 5 star game and only one 10 star selection, which happens to be my NCAA College Football "Bowling Heads" Game of the Year...believe me, it's a doozy this year! But before you bet on any of my bowl selections, I need you to play every bowl game I recommend with the designated dollar amount you began the bowl season with. DO NOT change the dollar amount of your star system half way through the Bowl Season. I don't care if I start 5-0 or 0-5, stay the course and I promise you will be successful. For example, each game I choose, I will provide you with the side to play on and a designated star value associated with the play. If I assign the winning side 3 stars, I need you to multiply that by the designated dollar amount you started the Bowling season with. If you are playing $25 a star, then bet $75 on the game I recommend. No more, no less. Now, I know what you're thinking...what a pear-shaped loser! Trust me, stay the course, and I promise you a very happy New Year. Ok, enough about the boring stuff....the picks please!



Game #1 December 21, 2006: Oregon +3.5 over BYU

We know a lame duck when we see one, and this group of Mighty Ducks is quite the opposite. BYU has been a public team all year long and we believe the Stormin' Mormons are as overrated as they get. Knowing that the Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 December showdowns doesn't help the reglious richt much either. Call the Ducks what you want, but these Mighty Ducks are no pushover. Did you know that the Oregon Ducks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Bowl Games as an underdog? We love a solid dog play...even if we are betting on a few quackin' ducks.

3* Play on the Oregon Ducks +3.5



Game #2 December 23, 2006: South Florida -4.5 over East Carolina

Well, unfortunately in handicapping, there are some games you have to look at and go with what your gut tells you. On December 23rd, the South Florida Bulls will seek their first bowl win over the East Carolina Pirates. The bad thing for the Pirates here, is that this South Florida squad is no bull. Throughout the 2006 campaign South Florida clashed with Big East Rivals Louisville, West Virginia, and Rutgers. Although they went 1-2 against the Big East's "Big 3" in 06', they lost to Rutgers by only 2 points and a good Louisville team by only 23 on the road! In certain bowl games you need to compare the conferences in which the teams reside. Sure, East Carolina played a respectable Conference USA schedule. But the Conference USA schedule is no Big East schedule. Throw in the Bulls 4-0 ATS mark in their last 4 games as a fave, and it looks like the Bulls win again!

3* Play on South Florida -4.5


Game #3 December 23, 2006: Tulsa +1.5 over Utah

Our final matchup of Week 1 takes us to a game that could be a shootout. Both Tulsa and Utah have shown signs of greatness this year, and both squads know how to put up numbers when needed. Tulsa QB Paul Smith is fun to watch and is sure to light up the score board in this year's Bell Hellicopter Armed Forces Bowl. We know that the Bowl Game might not sound like much, but this is one bowl game you won't want to miss cashing in on. Take advantage of this little 3 star secret in Texas. With the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes touting an 8-1 ATS mark in their last 9 games following an ATS win, we may not want to play the otherside in what could be a one sided matchup. Need a hurricane to turn your wallet into gold? This may be your only chance.

3* Play on Tulsa Golden Hurricanes +1.5


Please remember to stick to my star system above!

Best of Luck,

Pikes

"Protective Stop" - NCAA Picks - 12/9/06

Definition – A strategy that aims to limit potential losses to a desired amount by using a stop-loss or stop-limit order. For example, a trader or investor may execute a protective stop by setting a stop-loss order for 10% below what he or she paid for the stock, therefore limiting the loss to 10%.
If you buy a stock that is a falling knife (the stock is falling and you can’t stop it), the protective stop is probably your best friend. Think of the Protective Stop like Batman’s sidekick Robin. When you need help, the protective stop is there to protect you. Unfortunately in investing, the protective stop can also burn you from time to time. For instance, say the stock you purchased missed earnings estimates last quarter. This may cause your treasured stock to fall a quick 10% on the news, triggering you to automatically sell the stock. However, after investors realize the stock is now a bargain, the stock adjusts quickly up 5% from its 10% decline. Well, if your protective stop (aka Robin) was set to help out at 10%, you no longer own the stock and took a hard one to the chin.

You are probably now wondering how the Protective Stop can be linked to the world of sports handicapping. Simple, when times are good, you need to protect your gains. How can you protect your gains you ask? Everytime your gambling portfolio increases by 25%, cash out 10%. Trust me, you’ll thank me after you juice up your next "lock" that goes the other way.

Now on to my first run at the NCAA Basketball Season…

Play on Marquette Golden Eagles -3.5 over Wisconsin Badgers

I love a big time college matchup. Two ranked titans battling it out on the hardwood makes me jump for joy once football season is over. However, until the NCAA Bowl Games are finished, we want to take it easy on the college bball court. Today’s first battle pits the No. 12th ranked Wisconsin Badgers at the No. 20 Marquette Golden Eagles. Isn’t it odd how the #12 team in the country is getting points against the higher ranked opponent? Vegas doesn’t make mistakes on purpose, and neither should you in today’s contest. The Eagles check in at 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. You can back that 100% angle with the Badgers disappointing 0-4 ATS mark in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. It’s tough to find an 8-0 ATS record, but when you do, pound it.


Play on Gonzaga Bulldogs -6.5 over Washington Huskies

Our second matchup takes us to Bulldog country. Although I consider Gonzaga a “public” team in their own right, this contest is just too easy to pass up on. Once again Vegas tries to catch us off guard with a higher ranked road team getting points against a lower ranked team. The public player sees the No. 8 team in the country getting 6.5 and says wow, this is a lock! The smart gambler, which I am hoping you soon become, takes advantage of this minor discrepancy and plays the other way. We feel pretty confident about today’s game knowing that the Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Unfortunately, the Huskies are playing the opposite way and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Matching opposite trends? Christmas just came early!


Play on San Diego State +4 over Arizona Wildcats

Our final game of the day should easily cement our 3-0 Saturday. There is a fantatic trend inside this game that is an astonishing 82% over the past 3 seasons! I would love to give away this secret special inside angle, but don’t we want you coming back for more? Either way, the Aztecs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. With the No. 15 ranked Wildcats taking it to the road at 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 Mountain West contests, we really like our chances here today. Tonight the Aztecs will own the Kitty Cats.

Best of Luck,

Pikes

Need some more winners? Check out http://www.picksbypikes.com/ everyday for my FREE Top Selections!

"Value Trap: - NCAA Picks: Week 13

Definition - When a company's stock seems undervalued, investors are sometimes drawn into purchasing it in hopes of a stock price appreciation. If stock price is the only factor an investor looks at before buying stock, he or she could end up with a stock whose value is likely to decline even further.

In other words, just because something is cheap....doesn't mean you should buy it. So how can I relate the "Value Trap" in finance to to the "Value Trap" in gambling? Simple, in gambling when two teams face each other, the home team should always be favored by at least 3 points when the teams have identical records. If not, we go into what I call a "RED ALERT" status and look to play against the home fave. This 3 point cushion is even more important when the higher ranked team isn't favored by 3 or more. This week, two of our top matchups fall into the "Red Alert" status.

Get ready to earn some shopping money...

11/24/06

Play on LSU Tigers -2 over Arkansas Razorbacks

Today's matchup has LSU traveling to Arkansas in an SEC showdown. The Tigers are a remarkable 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite and look to fair well against the #5 team in the country. The Razorbacks check into today's contest at 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. With a higher ranked team getting points at home, we will gladly take the road favorite as we know Vegas knows a little more than we do. Go Tigers!

Play on Oregon +3 over Oregon State

We love a great in-state rivalry! This is especially true when the team we are supporting is the better team and they are getting points. The Ducks check into today's Battle of Oregon with an impressive 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous 8 games. They are also a remarkable 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a dog of 0.5 to 3 pts. Knowing that the public is aware that the home team has dominated the series winning the last 9 consecutive games, makes us want to swim to the ducks and pass on the beaver.

11/25/06

Play on Georgia -2.5 over Georgia Tech

Another In-State Rivalry worthy of a second look. On Saturday, #15 Georgia Tech will march into Georgia Stadium to take on their in-state rival the Bulldawgs. Considering Georgia is usually the ranked team in this matchup this late in the year, all the momentum is definitely on the Yellow Jackets' side. However, with Georgia Tech coming in at 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye, we may want to turn the other way. The Bulldawgs own the ACC as of late as they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games versus ACC opponents. Knowing that the #15th team in the country is getting points versus an unranked foe doesn't sit well with us...unless we are playing the other foe. Stick with the real dawg in this one.

Play on Pittsburgh +11.5 over Louisville

I can't begin to tell you how much I hate Pittsburgh. It seems that everytime I play on them they lose and everytime I play against them they win. Today's matchup versus Louisville hopefully won't be either of the above scenarios. Louisville needs a big win to pad their BCS ranking after the big loss to Rutgers a few weeks ago. However, last Thursday Pittsburgh was hangin tough with one of the country's best teams....the Mountaineers. Today's challenge should be a tough one for the Panthers, but they have had this game circled on their calendars since last November after a 42-20 Louisville thromping. I hate to back Dr. Dave and his 6-5 Panthers, but there is a little too much value against the overrated Cardinal. Pitts 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games as a home dog doesn't hurt either. Go Panthers!

Play on Arizona State +3.5 over Arizona

Don't you just love Rivalry Week??!! I know you enjoy watching two "home" teams battle it out for bragging rights until next year. Knowing how much these games mean to alumni and students proves that home field usually isn't a factor in a big in-state rivalry game. It's not too hard to drive a few hours from one campus to another to support your team and the Devils will have fans a plenty when they face off agianst the Wildcats on Saturday. However, betting on Arizona State this year hasn't really been a conservative play. Sometimes they show signs of greatness, however most of the time they tend to disappoint us. Knowing that the underdog is a cool 7-2 ATS in the last 9 games of this series, makes us want to fade the Kitties this week. Add in the fact that the road team is 8-3 ATS record in the last 11 matchups, and you can easily see why we support the Devils for one week only. Won't you join us for a dance with the devil in the pale moonlight?

Best of Luck,

Pikes

"Return on Investment" - NCAA Picks: Week 11

Definition – A performance measure used to evaluate the efficiency of an investment or to compare the efficiency of a number of different investments. To calculate ROI, the benefit (return) of an investment is divided by the cost of the investment; the result is expressed as a percentage or a ratio.

In gambling terms, I calculate my return on investment by the number of games I win each week divided by the total games I played for the week. If I’m not winning over 53% of my games, I consider my return for the week pretty lousy. Unfortunately, the last two weeks of NCAA Football Gambling has produced just that…lousy returns. Although my season record on this blog is a respectable 7-5 (58% Winners), I can’t be satisfied with a slightly better return than I need just to break even.

Enough chatter…This week’s winners are…

Louisville over RUTGERS by 1

Last week, the Cardinals were at an emotional peak and their fans played a key role in a monumental win over then #3 ranked West Virginia. This week however, the Cards will need to be at yet another emotional peak as the Rutgers faithful will be in a frenzy. As good as the Cardinals are, this is an extremely tough game. Rutgers is an impressive 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games as home dogs and 4-0 at home with rest. The Scarlet Knights have also held five foes this year to season low yardage. No wonder they check in to Thursday nights game with the nation’s 2nd ranked defense. I wonder if Rutgers will be thinking about that 56-5 thrashing Louisville gave them last season. Can you say, "Circle your calendar game?" Get ready, the Knights are off to battle.

Notre Dame over AIR FORCE by 4

I can’t believe I’m actually going to tell you that I liked Army last week. If you only saw the score from last Thursdays Air Force/Army game, you might not feel that Air Force is the best contender for the Fighting Irish. Sure they blew out Army by over 40 pts, but it was the vast amount of turnovers that Army surrendered that really made the difference. Everyone thinks that Notre Dame’s pass defense is its weakness. But did you know that the Irish’s pass defense ranks 22 places higher then their run stoppers? If you missed last Thursday’s blowout, the key to my selection is Air Force’s unstoppable rushing attack. That’s not to say their passing game is rough either. In case your wondering which side to choose, I want you to know that double-digit home dogs that out gain their opponent on the ground are a remarkable 334-81-3 ATS. That’s an 80% edge we are willing to take to the bank.

FLORIDA STATE over Wake Forest by 21

Well, you could definitely see last week’s Florida State blowout over Virginia coming. FSU continues to get better as the season goes on, and they have won the last 14 games in this series as double digit favorites. This includes an impressive 8-0 ATS home win streak by an average of about 35 PPG. However, Wake Forest isn’t anything to walk over. After last week’s home victory over a ranked Boston College team 21-14, look for Wake Forest to start the game off with a little chip on their shoulder. A hidden secret on Wake is that they are 8-1 this year, despite allowing 32 YPG more than they gain! If you missed the value in Florida State last week, don’t miss the value this week. Look for Bobby Bowden’s boys to improve on their 9-0 SU & 7-0-1 ATS mark as a favorite off a shutout win against a foe off a win here. This nifty edge earns Pike’s INCREDIBLE Stat of the week honors.

UCLA over Oregon State by 7

After a 4-1 start for the Bruins, reality continues to set in. Since a big win over Arizona, the Bruins have gone 0-4 in the face of winning ball clubs. OSU may not have the pedigree of California, but the Beavers are a winning football team and they are playing much better than the Bruins of late. However, the UCLA Bruins check in at 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as home chalk and have owned the Beavers during there last 3 contests, all by 21 or more. It’s going to be a sunny day in California this Saturday.

Best of Luck,

Pikes

"Blue Chips" - NCAA Picks: Week 10

Definition – A nationally recognized, well-established and financially sound company. Blue Chips generally sell high-quality, widely accepted products and services. Blue-chip companies are known to weather downturns and operate profitably in the face of adverse economic conditions. This helps to contribute to their long record of stable and reliable growth.

Blue Chip stocks are the best of the best. They’re the GEs, the Microsofts, and the Exxon Mobils of the world. In investing, the Blue Chip stock is your best friend. It’s the safest gamble you can take if you are investing in the stock market. Now if you could turn the Blue Chip stock into the Blue Chip team, wouldn't you? Would you want to lay this week’s hard earned cash on the USCs or the Stanfords of the world?

This discussion leads us into this week’s list of winners. To be the best, sometimes you have to invest in the best....especially when the best had a rough one last week.

This week’s winners…

Southern California over STANFORD by 31

Last week the Trojans took a tough one on the chin. Although sometimes we forget that the Trojan soldiers are just men in armor, last weekend these mighty warriors forgot to pick up their sword. USC has been a horrible favorite this year struggling at 2-5 ATS. But did you know that USC is a remarkable 12-1 ATS when allowing their opponent to 14 points or less? We can back that up even further with the Trojans 7-2 ATS record versus losing opponents. With Stanford checking in at 0-8 and surrendering a whopping 34.5 pts per game, we’ll cash in with the almighty Trojans here today as they revenge last week’s disappointing loss to Oregon State. If you read last week’s Blog, you’ll know that ranked teams coming off of a loss are now an INCREDIBLE 10-0 ATS!!! This Trojan horse has room to spare…come on in.

FLORIDA STATE over Virginia by 17

Let me start off by saying that I hate Bobby Bowden. Let me continue my hatred towards the state of Florida by saying that I hate Florida State. I hope these comments didn’t give it away that I bleed Nittany Lion Blue and White. Florida State has a ton of talent, but even a team as well stocked as the Seminoles gets a little taste of the injury bug from time to time. Losing players and losing seasons are two different things though. Florida State’s 4-4 start equals their worst start since Bobby Bowden took the helm back in 1976. Virginia’s 2-13 mark ATS in it’s last 15 SU losses and 2-9 ATS in its last 11 as road dogs, makes the Seminoles look convincing here. Although I hate Bobby Bowden, I’ll learn to love him for this game...and this game only.

CLEMSON over Maryland by 40

No, you didn’t read my prediction incorrectly. Clemson could very well beat the Terps by 40 this week fresh off the heels of last weekend’s disappointing loss to Virginia Tech. Of the many teams that were embarrassed last week, Clemson took the biggest beating of them all. Last Thursday, Virginia Tech showed us why the Lion, not the Tiger, is still the king of the jungle. How the Tigers bounce back will determine if they have the chance to play on New Year’s Day. More importantly, Maryland right now is sitting on top of the Atlantic Division in the ACC standings fresh off a big time win versus my buddy Bobby. I hope that Maryland realizes that the Tigers are checking into this one with a brilliant 30-3-1 ATS mark in SU wins over a conference opponent. Back that angle up with an 18-1-1 ATS mark if they beat a foe in their last meeting, and we’ll eagerly take a stroll through Death Valley this weekend.

Arizona State over OREGON STATE by 7

What we have here is the makings of a MAJOR letdown. That’s evidenced by the fact that teams who won SU as an underdog against a 5-0 or better opponent in their last game, are just 58-37 ATS. This includes a 46-27 ATS mark if they didn’t get a week to rest after their monumental celebration. To make matters a little worse for last week’s hero, if their opponent this week checks in off a win in its last game, this key angle is now a nifty 21-7 ATS. And if that opponent is a winning team, like our cute little Sun Devils are, this mark zooms to 14-2 ATS by fading these let down losers! These beautiful numbers lead us to this week’s Pike’s INCREDIBLE Stat of the week! If our puffed-up favorite happens to allow more than 15 PPG on the season, we enter into an UNDEFEATED 11-0 ATS angle since 1980. Sorry God, but this weekend we may have to side with the Devils.

Best of Luck,

Pikes

"Value Investing" - NCAA Picks: Week 9

I'm not going to brag. Sure, I cashed in on 3 out of 4 winners (75%) last week. And yes, you may have noticed that my sole loser last week was the Iowa Hawkeyes (who blew the cover by 1 point with about 300 ticks to go). I'm not going to brag though. Why? Because it wasn't a flawless 4-0 week!

Now back to the topic at hand...Value Investing

Definition - The strategy of selecting stocks that trade for less than their intrinsic value. Value investors actively seek stocks of companies that they believe the market has undervalued. They believe the market overreacts to good and bad news, causing stock price movements that do not correspond with the company's long-term fundamentals. The result is an opportunity for value investors to profit by buying when the price is deflated.

This week, the world of NCAA Football clearly exhibits the characteristics of the financial definition above. Value Investing, or as I like to call it, Value Gambling, is defined as finding undervalued teams that have taken a turn for the worse. This doesn't mean you search for a team that is plagued by injuries, such as Iowa or Oklahoma. This means you need to find the team whose star player may have had a brief run in with the law, or whose entire roster decided to get into a helmet swinging melee on the playing field in the middle of the game. Those are the teams that might be worth a second look today. My first selection clearly demonstrates my agenda.

This week's winners...

Miami Florida over GEORGIA TECH by 3

Talk about the ULTIMATE Value Play! Last year, Georgia Tech went buzzing into Miami as an 18-point underdog and beat the Hurricanes 14-10 (stopping an eight-game Hurricane win streak in the process). Now, Miami gets a chance to return the favor on the road, with their one-game suspensions already served! The Hurricanes won't have an easy task this week though, especially with standout Calvin Johnson on the field. Nonetheless, the media-battered Hurricanes are an AMAZING 5-1 Straight Up ATS as a dog under Larry Coker and are in a MUST WIN situation here. My only concern in this game is the Pikes INCREDIBLE Stat of the week...Did you know that ranked teams coming off a loss are an UNBELIEVABLE 9-0 ATS thus far in 2006? That stat alone could make you want to fade the Canes. However, when you consider that one of our own writers (Seth) took a shot at Miami this week too, this Sugar Cane becomes too sweet to pass up!

Texas over TEXAS TECH by 4

If you didn't already know, the defending National Champs dodged a big bullet last week in Cornhusker city. The Horns got lucky on a game-winning field goal following a Nebraska fumble as the Huskers were trying to run out the clock. That makes the Horns current run a remarkable 31-2 SU, including 16 road wins in a row! Don't tell anyone, but this is not your typical high scoring, no defense, Red Raider squad. Texas Tech has held six opponents to season low-yardage this year and they own the nation's 3rd ranked passing offense. This will fit in rather nicely with the Texas Longhorns 83rd ranked passing defense! Last year's 52-17 thrashing in Austin was the 3rd worse loss EVER for Red Raider coach Mike Leach. This is one of those "circle your calendar" games that Texas Tech hasn't forgot about. This week you shouldn't either.

That's why you will want to PLAY AGAINST the defending College National Champion as a road favorite since they are coming off back-to-back wins and are playing an opponent coming off a double-digit SU & ATS win. By playing against them, you can cash in on a nifty 17-3 ATS W-L Record since 1980.

AIR FORCE over BYU by 1

This is a big one for the Force. Their last big game was a disappointing 24-17 loss to Navy and you know they had this game circled next on their list. Keep in mind that Air Force still has a date with the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame on November 11th, but we can cash in on that dog later. The Force is 8-1 ATS as conference home dogs and 29-6 ATS as a dog in games in which they outrush their opponent, including 14-1 ATS when seeking revenge! BYU checks in at a pathetic 3-15 ATS in its last 18 games against .500 or better avengers. They are also 2-20 ATS as a favorite in games in which they are outrushed, including 0-11 ATS versus a foe off a win. This week, fade the Stormin' Mormons coming off their homecoming campaign and may the Force be with you.

Florida over Georgia by 5

This game looks like it will be an ugly one, especially with Florida coming off a loss where they didn't produce a single offensive touchdown. Yes, the Pikes INCREDIBLE Stat of the week tells us to stay away from this hungry gator, but we see too much Value in the lonely Bulldog. Florida coach Urban Meyer has not lost back-to-back games since the 2002 season at Bowling Green and we don't think he'll lose this one today. Still, Mark Richt is pretty good at getting his dawgs ready to play competitive ball away from the hedges where his troops are an impressive 26-8 SU & 20-13-1 ATS. That stat includes an inside angle of 3-0 ATS as dogs of four or more points. Though the Bulldogs have struggled lately, Florida has slipped deeper into the swamp considering their team's net yardage is down about 150 YPG over their last three games. Take the two touchdowns in this wild SEC showdown!

Final Note: My final game this week was a toss up between the Florida Gators and the Boilermakers of Purdue. However, I couldn't do the deed over my dear old Lions. I did want to send a note out to all the Lion fans out there to STAY CLEAR of this weekend's road contest. Although Penn State may survive the weekend, I would go the opposite way with the 3pts if I had to pick a winner.

Best of Luck,

Pikes

"Cash Cow" - NCAA Picks: Week 8

Definition - A business, product or asset that, once acquired and paid off, will produce consistent cash flow over its lifespan.

AKA = Me

Yeah, I know what you are thinking...is this writer really that cocky? You might think that, but after this weekend you'll know not only to listen to me, but to love me. I may not be right all the time (documented 48-32 60% www.picksbypikes.com), but if you listen to me consistently, you will come out a winner. Remember, the gambling public only needs to win 53% of the time to come out a winner over the long term. As you can see from my documented winning percentage, I have consistently surpassed the mark.

Enough about me, lets get to what everyone is looking for, this weeks winners...

This weekend looks to be an easy one for the college football gambler. Why, you might ask? Because last week the public gambler cleaned house against the odds maker. What does this mean in English? Vegas wants its money back! So if you are a public player...i.e. the guy who bets on his favorite team every week, the USC, Notre Dame, and Texas lovers...DONT GAMBLE this weekend! You can thank me later.

This week's Winners...

Michigan over Iowa by 3

If anything can be learned from Iowa's lackluster effort at Indiana last week, it's that the Hawkeye's can't beat anybody if they're not concentrating. Last week, they had the look ahead fever - they will definitely be concentrating on today's game. Iowa is a strong 7-1-1 ATS against Michigan, annually saving its best for the Wolverines. Iowa is also 6-1 ATS in the second of BB road games, 9-2 ATS taking doubles, and 25-10 ATS in its last 35 Big Ten games. Big Blue is just 1-6 ATS in the first of back-to-back homers. Last week's battle in Happy Valley might have taken something out of UM. Oh, and for you www.picksbypikes.com followers...this happens to be my KICK YOUR BOOKIE'S @$$ Game of the Year! It's also an advanced winner for anyone who is following this Blog!

Nebraska over Texas by 7

Folks up in Lincoln are calling this a preview of the Big 12 championship game. Obviously, the local paper doesn't cover teams from Missouri. Regardless of what you call it, Nebraska needs to bring everything in their arsenal to this game. Texas has improved since getting whipped at home by Ohio State and QB Colt McCoy is beginning to show why he was so highly recruited. Nonetheless, the defending National Champ Longhorns find themselves in a very undesirable role here. Defending champs are just 41-56-1 ATS on the road coming off a win. By putting these overstuffed champs in this role we are 21-7-1 ATS for a neat 75% winning angle! Better yet, bring these young heifers in off back-to-back victories and our win-loss results zoom to 17-1-1 ATS! We're all over the Cornhuskers here today!

Arkansas over Mississippi by 21

The SEC West division leaders took a week off (playing SE Missouri State last week) to prepare for the Mississippi offensive juggernaut. Mississippi has won one game in the stats this year and that was against Kentucky's 118th-ranked defense. Arkansas is 15-2 ATS at home against avenging opponents in its last 17 tries. They also own a vaunted rush machine (235 RYPG on 6.1 YPG) the likes of which will make Ole Miss want to run back to the locker room. Considering that the Rebs are 18-50 ATS in conference play when they surrender 200 or more yards on the ground, you don't want to Miss this one.

Alabama over Tennessee by 1

Here comes Alabama in what has become its favorite role, an underdog with no perceived chance to win the game. Certainly, if this turns into a scoring contest Tennessee will win. Bama knows it can't let that happen. There is no home field advantage in this series with the visitor cashing in 13 of the last 14 meetings. That stat is coupled with the fact that Tennessee has been known for its home failures in big games under coach Phil Fulmer. Alabama is 24-7-2 as an underdog vs a more than .800 foe coming off a win. Double-digit dogs with better defenses always command our attention.

Best of Luck,

Pikes