"Protective Stop" - NCAA Picks - 12/9/06

Definition – A strategy that aims to limit potential losses to a desired amount by using a stop-loss or stop-limit order. For example, a trader or investor may execute a protective stop by setting a stop-loss order for 10% below what he or she paid for the stock, therefore limiting the loss to 10%.
If you buy a stock that is a falling knife (the stock is falling and you can’t stop it), the protective stop is probably your best friend. Think of the Protective Stop like Batman’s sidekick Robin. When you need help, the protective stop is there to protect you. Unfortunately in investing, the protective stop can also burn you from time to time. For instance, say the stock you purchased missed earnings estimates last quarter. This may cause your treasured stock to fall a quick 10% on the news, triggering you to automatically sell the stock. However, after investors realize the stock is now a bargain, the stock adjusts quickly up 5% from its 10% decline. Well, if your protective stop (aka Robin) was set to help out at 10%, you no longer own the stock and took a hard one to the chin.

You are probably now wondering how the Protective Stop can be linked to the world of sports handicapping. Simple, when times are good, you need to protect your gains. How can you protect your gains you ask? Everytime your gambling portfolio increases by 25%, cash out 10%. Trust me, you’ll thank me after you juice up your next "lock" that goes the other way.

Now on to my first run at the NCAA Basketball Season…

Play on Marquette Golden Eagles -3.5 over Wisconsin Badgers

I love a big time college matchup. Two ranked titans battling it out on the hardwood makes me jump for joy once football season is over. However, until the NCAA Bowl Games are finished, we want to take it easy on the college bball court. Today’s first battle pits the No. 12th ranked Wisconsin Badgers at the No. 20 Marquette Golden Eagles. Isn’t it odd how the #12 team in the country is getting points against the higher ranked opponent? Vegas doesn’t make mistakes on purpose, and neither should you in today’s contest. The Eagles check in at 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. You can back that 100% angle with the Badgers disappointing 0-4 ATS mark in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. It’s tough to find an 8-0 ATS record, but when you do, pound it.


Play on Gonzaga Bulldogs -6.5 over Washington Huskies

Our second matchup takes us to Bulldog country. Although I consider Gonzaga a “public” team in their own right, this contest is just too easy to pass up on. Once again Vegas tries to catch us off guard with a higher ranked road team getting points against a lower ranked team. The public player sees the No. 8 team in the country getting 6.5 and says wow, this is a lock! The smart gambler, which I am hoping you soon become, takes advantage of this minor discrepancy and plays the other way. We feel pretty confident about today’s game knowing that the Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Unfortunately, the Huskies are playing the opposite way and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Matching opposite trends? Christmas just came early!


Play on San Diego State +4 over Arizona Wildcats

Our final game of the day should easily cement our 3-0 Saturday. There is a fantatic trend inside this game that is an astonishing 82% over the past 3 seasons! I would love to give away this secret special inside angle, but don’t we want you coming back for more? Either way, the Aztecs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. With the No. 15 ranked Wildcats taking it to the road at 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 Mountain West contests, we really like our chances here today. Tonight the Aztecs will own the Kitty Cats.

Best of Luck,

Pikes

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