"Value Trap: - NCAA Picks: Week 13

Definition - When a company's stock seems undervalued, investors are sometimes drawn into purchasing it in hopes of a stock price appreciation. If stock price is the only factor an investor looks at before buying stock, he or she could end up with a stock whose value is likely to decline even further.

In other words, just because something is cheap....doesn't mean you should buy it. So how can I relate the "Value Trap" in finance to to the "Value Trap" in gambling? Simple, in gambling when two teams face each other, the home team should always be favored by at least 3 points when the teams have identical records. If not, we go into what I call a "RED ALERT" status and look to play against the home fave. This 3 point cushion is even more important when the higher ranked team isn't favored by 3 or more. This week, two of our top matchups fall into the "Red Alert" status.

Get ready to earn some shopping money...

11/24/06

Play on LSU Tigers -2 over Arkansas Razorbacks

Today's matchup has LSU traveling to Arkansas in an SEC showdown. The Tigers are a remarkable 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite and look to fair well against the #5 team in the country. The Razorbacks check into today's contest at 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. With a higher ranked team getting points at home, we will gladly take the road favorite as we know Vegas knows a little more than we do. Go Tigers!

Play on Oregon +3 over Oregon State

We love a great in-state rivalry! This is especially true when the team we are supporting is the better team and they are getting points. The Ducks check into today's Battle of Oregon with an impressive 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous 8 games. They are also a remarkable 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a dog of 0.5 to 3 pts. Knowing that the public is aware that the home team has dominated the series winning the last 9 consecutive games, makes us want to swim to the ducks and pass on the beaver.

11/25/06

Play on Georgia -2.5 over Georgia Tech

Another In-State Rivalry worthy of a second look. On Saturday, #15 Georgia Tech will march into Georgia Stadium to take on their in-state rival the Bulldawgs. Considering Georgia is usually the ranked team in this matchup this late in the year, all the momentum is definitely on the Yellow Jackets' side. However, with Georgia Tech coming in at 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye, we may want to turn the other way. The Bulldawgs own the ACC as of late as they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games versus ACC opponents. Knowing that the #15th team in the country is getting points versus an unranked foe doesn't sit well with us...unless we are playing the other foe. Stick with the real dawg in this one.

Play on Pittsburgh +11.5 over Louisville

I can't begin to tell you how much I hate Pittsburgh. It seems that everytime I play on them they lose and everytime I play against them they win. Today's matchup versus Louisville hopefully won't be either of the above scenarios. Louisville needs a big win to pad their BCS ranking after the big loss to Rutgers a few weeks ago. However, last Thursday Pittsburgh was hangin tough with one of the country's best teams....the Mountaineers. Today's challenge should be a tough one for the Panthers, but they have had this game circled on their calendars since last November after a 42-20 Louisville thromping. I hate to back Dr. Dave and his 6-5 Panthers, but there is a little too much value against the overrated Cardinal. Pitts 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games as a home dog doesn't hurt either. Go Panthers!

Play on Arizona State +3.5 over Arizona

Don't you just love Rivalry Week??!! I know you enjoy watching two "home" teams battle it out for bragging rights until next year. Knowing how much these games mean to alumni and students proves that home field usually isn't a factor in a big in-state rivalry game. It's not too hard to drive a few hours from one campus to another to support your team and the Devils will have fans a plenty when they face off agianst the Wildcats on Saturday. However, betting on Arizona State this year hasn't really been a conservative play. Sometimes they show signs of greatness, however most of the time they tend to disappoint us. Knowing that the underdog is a cool 7-2 ATS in the last 9 games of this series, makes us want to fade the Kitties this week. Add in the fact that the road team is 8-3 ATS record in the last 11 matchups, and you can easily see why we support the Devils for one week only. Won't you join us for a dance with the devil in the pale moonlight?

Best of Luck,

Pikes