"Return on Investment" - NCAA Picks: Week 11

Definition – A performance measure used to evaluate the efficiency of an investment or to compare the efficiency of a number of different investments. To calculate ROI, the benefit (return) of an investment is divided by the cost of the investment; the result is expressed as a percentage or a ratio.

In gambling terms, I calculate my return on investment by the number of games I win each week divided by the total games I played for the week. If I’m not winning over 53% of my games, I consider my return for the week pretty lousy. Unfortunately, the last two weeks of NCAA Football Gambling has produced just that…lousy returns. Although my season record on this blog is a respectable 7-5 (58% Winners), I can’t be satisfied with a slightly better return than I need just to break even.

Enough chatter…This week’s winners are…

Louisville over RUTGERS by 1

Last week, the Cardinals were at an emotional peak and their fans played a key role in a monumental win over then #3 ranked West Virginia. This week however, the Cards will need to be at yet another emotional peak as the Rutgers faithful will be in a frenzy. As good as the Cardinals are, this is an extremely tough game. Rutgers is an impressive 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games as home dogs and 4-0 at home with rest. The Scarlet Knights have also held five foes this year to season low yardage. No wonder they check in to Thursday nights game with the nation’s 2nd ranked defense. I wonder if Rutgers will be thinking about that 56-5 thrashing Louisville gave them last season. Can you say, "Circle your calendar game?" Get ready, the Knights are off to battle.

Notre Dame over AIR FORCE by 4

I can’t believe I’m actually going to tell you that I liked Army last week. If you only saw the score from last Thursdays Air Force/Army game, you might not feel that Air Force is the best contender for the Fighting Irish. Sure they blew out Army by over 40 pts, but it was the vast amount of turnovers that Army surrendered that really made the difference. Everyone thinks that Notre Dame’s pass defense is its weakness. But did you know that the Irish’s pass defense ranks 22 places higher then their run stoppers? If you missed last Thursday’s blowout, the key to my selection is Air Force’s unstoppable rushing attack. That’s not to say their passing game is rough either. In case your wondering which side to choose, I want you to know that double-digit home dogs that out gain their opponent on the ground are a remarkable 334-81-3 ATS. That’s an 80% edge we are willing to take to the bank.

FLORIDA STATE over Wake Forest by 21

Well, you could definitely see last week’s Florida State blowout over Virginia coming. FSU continues to get better as the season goes on, and they have won the last 14 games in this series as double digit favorites. This includes an impressive 8-0 ATS home win streak by an average of about 35 PPG. However, Wake Forest isn’t anything to walk over. After last week’s home victory over a ranked Boston College team 21-14, look for Wake Forest to start the game off with a little chip on their shoulder. A hidden secret on Wake is that they are 8-1 this year, despite allowing 32 YPG more than they gain! If you missed the value in Florida State last week, don’t miss the value this week. Look for Bobby Bowden’s boys to improve on their 9-0 SU & 7-0-1 ATS mark as a favorite off a shutout win against a foe off a win here. This nifty edge earns Pike’s INCREDIBLE Stat of the week honors.

UCLA over Oregon State by 7

After a 4-1 start for the Bruins, reality continues to set in. Since a big win over Arizona, the Bruins have gone 0-4 in the face of winning ball clubs. OSU may not have the pedigree of California, but the Beavers are a winning football team and they are playing much better than the Bruins of late. However, the UCLA Bruins check in at 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as home chalk and have owned the Beavers during there last 3 contests, all by 21 or more. It’s going to be a sunny day in California this Saturday.

Best of Luck,

Pikes