"Value Investing" - NCAA Picks: Week 9

I'm not going to brag. Sure, I cashed in on 3 out of 4 winners (75%) last week. And yes, you may have noticed that my sole loser last week was the Iowa Hawkeyes (who blew the cover by 1 point with about 300 ticks to go). I'm not going to brag though. Why? Because it wasn't a flawless 4-0 week!

Now back to the topic at hand...Value Investing

Definition - The strategy of selecting stocks that trade for less than their intrinsic value. Value investors actively seek stocks of companies that they believe the market has undervalued. They believe the market overreacts to good and bad news, causing stock price movements that do not correspond with the company's long-term fundamentals. The result is an opportunity for value investors to profit by buying when the price is deflated.

This week, the world of NCAA Football clearly exhibits the characteristics of the financial definition above. Value Investing, or as I like to call it, Value Gambling, is defined as finding undervalued teams that have taken a turn for the worse. This doesn't mean you search for a team that is plagued by injuries, such as Iowa or Oklahoma. This means you need to find the team whose star player may have had a brief run in with the law, or whose entire roster decided to get into a helmet swinging melee on the playing field in the middle of the game. Those are the teams that might be worth a second look today. My first selection clearly demonstrates my agenda.

This week's winners...

Miami Florida over GEORGIA TECH by 3

Talk about the ULTIMATE Value Play! Last year, Georgia Tech went buzzing into Miami as an 18-point underdog and beat the Hurricanes 14-10 (stopping an eight-game Hurricane win streak in the process). Now, Miami gets a chance to return the favor on the road, with their one-game suspensions already served! The Hurricanes won't have an easy task this week though, especially with standout Calvin Johnson on the field. Nonetheless, the media-battered Hurricanes are an AMAZING 5-1 Straight Up ATS as a dog under Larry Coker and are in a MUST WIN situation here. My only concern in this game is the Pikes INCREDIBLE Stat of the week...Did you know that ranked teams coming off a loss are an UNBELIEVABLE 9-0 ATS thus far in 2006? That stat alone could make you want to fade the Canes. However, when you consider that one of our own writers (Seth) took a shot at Miami this week too, this Sugar Cane becomes too sweet to pass up!

Texas over TEXAS TECH by 4

If you didn't already know, the defending National Champs dodged a big bullet last week in Cornhusker city. The Horns got lucky on a game-winning field goal following a Nebraska fumble as the Huskers were trying to run out the clock. That makes the Horns current run a remarkable 31-2 SU, including 16 road wins in a row! Don't tell anyone, but this is not your typical high scoring, no defense, Red Raider squad. Texas Tech has held six opponents to season low-yardage this year and they own the nation's 3rd ranked passing offense. This will fit in rather nicely with the Texas Longhorns 83rd ranked passing defense! Last year's 52-17 thrashing in Austin was the 3rd worse loss EVER for Red Raider coach Mike Leach. This is one of those "circle your calendar" games that Texas Tech hasn't forgot about. This week you shouldn't either.

That's why you will want to PLAY AGAINST the defending College National Champion as a road favorite since they are coming off back-to-back wins and are playing an opponent coming off a double-digit SU & ATS win. By playing against them, you can cash in on a nifty 17-3 ATS W-L Record since 1980.

AIR FORCE over BYU by 1

This is a big one for the Force. Their last big game was a disappointing 24-17 loss to Navy and you know they had this game circled next on their list. Keep in mind that Air Force still has a date with the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame on November 11th, but we can cash in on that dog later. The Force is 8-1 ATS as conference home dogs and 29-6 ATS as a dog in games in which they outrush their opponent, including 14-1 ATS when seeking revenge! BYU checks in at a pathetic 3-15 ATS in its last 18 games against .500 or better avengers. They are also 2-20 ATS as a favorite in games in which they are outrushed, including 0-11 ATS versus a foe off a win. This week, fade the Stormin' Mormons coming off their homecoming campaign and may the Force be with you.

Florida over Georgia by 5

This game looks like it will be an ugly one, especially with Florida coming off a loss where they didn't produce a single offensive touchdown. Yes, the Pikes INCREDIBLE Stat of the week tells us to stay away from this hungry gator, but we see too much Value in the lonely Bulldog. Florida coach Urban Meyer has not lost back-to-back games since the 2002 season at Bowling Green and we don't think he'll lose this one today. Still, Mark Richt is pretty good at getting his dawgs ready to play competitive ball away from the hedges where his troops are an impressive 26-8 SU & 20-13-1 ATS. That stat includes an inside angle of 3-0 ATS as dogs of four or more points. Though the Bulldogs have struggled lately, Florida has slipped deeper into the swamp considering their team's net yardage is down about 150 YPG over their last three games. Take the two touchdowns in this wild SEC showdown!

Final Note: My final game this week was a toss up between the Florida Gators and the Boilermakers of Purdue. However, I couldn't do the deed over my dear old Lions. I did want to send a note out to all the Lion fans out there to STAY CLEAR of this weekend's road contest. Although Penn State may survive the weekend, I would go the opposite way with the 3pts if I had to pick a winner.

Best of Luck,

Pikes