Matt Schaub Trade Analysis
The Atlanta Falcons this past week traded away Matt Schaub (their back-up QB) and their 1st round pick (10th overall) in this year’s NFL draft. Those two pieces were sent to the Texans for Houston’s first (8th overall) and second round picks this year, as well as their second round pick in next year’s draft. Also this week, Schaub signed a 6-year contract worth $48 million. Not bad for a back-up quarterback who has never won a start in the NFL. So what were these teams thinking?
Atlanta’s Perspective:
This trade was a slam dunk for the Falcons. With Michael Vick still wowing fans with his speed and agility (although not that much winning), Schaub was never going to be a starter for this team. Although he has filled in nicely when Vick has been hurt, he still has yet to win a game as a starting QB. That said, most teams around the NFL feel Schaub has the potential to be a top quarterback in the league. Every off-season, teams have been trying to trade for him (see Minnesota last year). The Texan’s were the team to finally get it done.
To obtain two second round picks in addition to moving up two spots in the first round for your back-up quarterback was simply masterful. Moving from the 10th spot to the 8th spot won’t change their pick, but it should assure them of landing their man - Laron Landry from LSU (to check out who everyone else will be taking in the first round, read my latest mock draft here). It is the two second round picks though, that I see as being the biggest key to this deal.
The Texans aren’t exactly a model franchise in the NFL. They have not been a good football team and there is no reason to think that Schaub and the rest of this year’s group will do much to change that. This means that the second round pick for next season could be even better than the one in this year’s draft (and this year’s is in top 10 of the second round). This is clearly a top-notch trade for the Falcons. Bobby Petrino will certainly be given some quality players with which he can build his team.
Houston’s Perspective:
The Texan’s side of this trade is not as immediately clear. While the Falcons got draft picks, which have a clear and calculable value, Houston got Matt Schaub and the aforementioned 10th pick overall. Moving down to #10 shouldn’t change the Texans pick. I had them pegged for Levi Brown from PSU at #8 and if he gets by the Dolphins at #9, the Texans will have traded down two spots and still gotten the man they want and need. So while I’m sure the swapping of first round picks this year was key in getting the deal done, I don’t see it playing out as a major impact in the trade.
Matt Schaub is the key to this deal. The problem with this trade is that, from the Texan’s side, it is all based on potential. If Matt Schaub becomes a top quarterback who leads the Texan’s for the next 10 years and makes them a competitive franchise, then this was obviously a great trade for Houston. On the other hand, if he is completely inept and turns out to be another bust, then the Texan’s will have to rebuild yet again. Houston could become the first team in NFL history to rebuild 3 different times before ever becoming competitive.
That is why this trade is so important for the Texans. Matt Schaub certainly has the talent to be a good, possibly great, player.
He has to step up and be the man for a franchise who passed on Reggie Bush. Think about that. Not only does Schaub have the pressure of a $48 million contract, but also of being the guy who the organization is counting on to make the fans forget about passing on Bush. Either one of those on its own is enough to make a talented player fail worse than Ryan Leaf, but combined, it is enough to drain Superman of his powers faster than Kryptonite.
Final Thoughts:
Right now, this is clearly a win for the Falcons. The 8th overall pick and two second round picks for a back-up QB and the 10th overall pick is huge for a franchise with a new direction like Atlanta. Best case scenario for the Texans is that Schaub becomes a star, wins Super Bowls, and turns Houston into a dynasty. If that were to happen, it would obviously be a win for the Texans, but Schaub can just make the Falcons competitive, the trade might be even. For right now though it’s advantage Falcons…Superman better get to work.
Atlanta’s Perspective:
This trade was a slam dunk for the Falcons. With Michael Vick still wowing fans with his speed and agility (although not that much winning), Schaub was never going to be a starter for this team. Although he has filled in nicely when Vick has been hurt, he still has yet to win a game as a starting QB. That said, most teams around the NFL feel Schaub has the potential to be a top quarterback in the league. Every off-season, teams have been trying to trade for him (see Minnesota last year). The Texan’s were the team to finally get it done.
To obtain two second round picks in addition to moving up two spots in the first round for your back-up quarterback was simply masterful. Moving from the 10th spot to the 8th spot won’t change their pick, but it should assure them of landing their man - Laron Landry from LSU (to check out who everyone else will be taking in the first round, read my latest mock draft here). It is the two second round picks though, that I see as being the biggest key to this deal.
The Texans aren’t exactly a model franchise in the NFL. They have not been a good football team and there is no reason to think that Schaub and the rest of this year’s group will do much to change that. This means that the second round pick for next season could be even better than the one in this year’s draft (and this year’s is in top 10 of the second round). This is clearly a top-notch trade for the Falcons. Bobby Petrino will certainly be given some quality players with which he can build his team.
Houston’s Perspective:
The Texan’s side of this trade is not as immediately clear. While the Falcons got draft picks, which have a clear and calculable value, Houston got Matt Schaub and the aforementioned 10th pick overall. Moving down to #10 shouldn’t change the Texans pick. I had them pegged for Levi Brown from PSU at #8 and if he gets by the Dolphins at #9, the Texans will have traded down two spots and still gotten the man they want and need. So while I’m sure the swapping of first round picks this year was key in getting the deal done, I don’t see it playing out as a major impact in the trade.
Matt Schaub is the key to this deal. The problem with this trade is that, from the Texan’s side, it is all based on potential. If Matt Schaub becomes a top quarterback who leads the Texan’s for the next 10 years and makes them a competitive franchise, then this was obviously a great trade for Houston. On the other hand, if he is completely inept and turns out to be another bust, then the Texan’s will have to rebuild yet again. Houston could become the first team in NFL history to rebuild 3 different times before ever becoming competitive.
That is why this trade is so important for the Texans. Matt Schaub certainly has the talent to be a good, possibly great, player.
He has to step up and be the man for a franchise who passed on Reggie Bush. Think about that. Not only does Schaub have the pressure of a $48 million contract, but also of being the guy who the organization is counting on to make the fans forget about passing on Bush. Either one of those on its own is enough to make a talented player fail worse than Ryan Leaf, but combined, it is enough to drain Superman of his powers faster than Kryptonite.Final Thoughts:
Right now, this is clearly a win for the Falcons. The 8th overall pick and two second round picks for a back-up QB and the 10th overall pick is huge for a franchise with a new direction like Atlanta. Best case scenario for the Texans is that Schaub becomes a star, wins Super Bowls, and turns Houston into a dynasty. If that were to happen, it would obviously be a win for the Texans, but Schaub can just make the Falcons competitive, the trade might be even. For right now though it’s advantage Falcons…Superman better get to work.
2 comments:
Schaub doesn't have to worry about making Texan fans forget Reggie Bush nearly as much as he does about making them forget Vince Young.
Rick,
To summarize what you are saying is that the potential Atlanta is getting (in draft picks) is greater than the potential Houston is getting (in Shaub).
We agree that the swap of 07 first rounders is negligible.
Now the question becomes is a starting QB worth a low second rounder and a yet-to-be-determined second rounder? I know, I know "Shaub is a back-up!" In Atlanta Shaub was a back-up in Houston Shaub is a starting QB, and while he has yet to prove himself as a winning starting QB, getting a the leader of your offesne for 2 second rounders aint bad.
You also must consider the chances of Atlanta shooting themselves in the football by shipping out their oft-reliable back-up while their starter has yet to prove himself a good fit for their new system and capable to remaining off the IR. Won't they look silly if Vick goes down in the early goings and Petrino's rookie season gets flushed down the cammode.
Hey, what if Petrino doesn't like Vick's fit in his system? Then what?
I think this trade is much more even than you say. Houston gets a potential franchise saver for the cheap and Atlanta rolls the dice (once more) for at least a season on Vick, plus some early rounders.
PS - Depeding on where Carr lands I would not be surprised by a rejuvenation.
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