2007 NFL Draft - 5 Things I Know

I have almost finished my last mock draft of the year. I felt that my first one was pretty solid, but trades and signings since then have forced me to make a few minor changes. Unfortunately, things never seem to go as planned in the draft. Teams at the top of the draft are either looking to move down (which they will never fully advertise) or bringing in top choices for workouts and interviews (even though they only have interest in about half of the people they bring in). Teams at the bottom of the draft are either looking to trade up (which they can mention, but without saying how high they want to move) or trying to calculate who will be available when they pick (which I don’t know how you do when you have no idea who anyone else is going to pick thanks to all the smoke screens).

Did you follow all that? If you did, can you explain it to me? The bottom line is that teams rarely do what is expected of them beyond the first 3-6 picks. After that, we always see “reaches” and trades.

That is how it always happens. A team picking 7th might realize, based on the players picked 1-6, that the player they really want will still be available at the 10 spot. They will then trade down three spots and still take the guy all those “experts” were saying would be drafted 7th. Of course, then those same experts will tell you they had it right because they got the player and team matched, just at the wrong number. What they won't tell you is that most of the time they are just guessing in the dark.

There are few sure things when it comes to the NFL draft. The easiest pick in every mock draft last year was Reggie Bush first to the Texans, right? We all know how that turned out. You can always bet that Al Davis has no idea what he is doing. You can also bet that, somehow or someway, Andy Reid will find a way to draft a few more fat linemen (that was for you, Jason). Beyond these sure things, it’s usually a wash.

That said, I’m going to take a shot at it anyhow. I’m a brave soul and I believe there are a few things I “know” about this year’s draft...

1. "Consensus" picks rarely pan out: The two seemingly consensus picks in this year’s draft are Greg Olsen to Carolina and Marshawn Lynch to Green Bay. At least one (and probably both) of these picks will not happen. Keep in mind that as I say this, I have both of these players going to these respective teams in my mock draft. Lynch could very easily go 12th to Buffalo, since they traded away McGahee. Then the Panthers would be able to take Patrick Willis (whom I have going to the Bills) from Ole Miss. This would then be an easy pick for the Panthers because they lost Chris Draft in free agency and Dan Morgan can't stay on the field. Picks outside the top 1-3 choices that everyone agrees on usually just don’t happen. If you don’t believe me, go check how many people had the Bills taking a DT with the 8th pick last year and how many had Buffalo taking a safety.

2. Sometimes "reach" picks aren't that much of a reach: Speaking of the Bills safety, Donte Whitner was a supposed “bust” last year after being taking with that 8th overall pick. Now, no one is saying a word after he had one heck of a rookie year (105 tackles). Every year there is one top 10 pick that makes the experts sound like Scooby Doo. They scratch their heads, call the pick a reach, and then you never hear them talk about it again because they are usually wrong. Fact is that if these experts really knew this much about the NFL draft, they would be employed by an NFL team!

3. Joe Staley's stock will continue to rise: Joe Staley, a tackle from Central Michigan, will be taken much higher in the draft than anyone thinks. Staley has steadily risen up many draft boards, and for good reason. Still, most have him at the end of the first round. As fellow TalkingHead Pischl states in his mock draft, Staley certainly is becoming a “chic selection” - there are several teams early on in the draft that could easily take him. Don’t be surprised (assuming Levi Brown is off the board to Miami at #9) if teams like the Texans (10th), Panthers (14th), Packers (16th), Titans (19th), and Giants (20th) all give Staley a long, hard look.

4. Daniel Snyder will make a move: The Redskins will trade away more draft picks. I know, this will be tough considering they only have one pick in the first four rounds, but I have faith that Daniel Snyder will find a way. I don’t know how he does it; I guess he is just that good. With their one pick though, I fully expect them to look for some kind of pass rush from the defensive line. Whether that is a top DE (Adams or Anderson) to provide speed off the edge or a massive DT (Branch or Okoye) to demand double teams, the Redskins have to improve that d-line.

5. The Eagles will draft for the secondary: There is nothing wrong with the Eagles offense - the issues for the Birds are on the defensive side of the ball. They have problems along the d-line. There are questions about the linebackers. The secondary though, is certainly a position of great strength. That said, the Eagles will draft a player for the secondary in the first round. Don’t ask me why, your guess is as good as mine. But Andy Reid always drafts for two years down the road, and perhaps this is the year they find Brian Dawkins eventual replacement (Griffin?). Of course, this is all assuming some fat lineman doesn’t fall into his lap.

So there you have it. These five things will surely happen during this year’s NFL draft. Mark them down, circle them in red, and then e-mail me in a month when none of them actually happen.