March Madness 2007: How to Win Your Pool(s)

The Madness is now two days old. In less than 48 hours, you’ll be spending more time checking your cell phone for scores than you will be trying to close that big deal you’ve been working on for months. March Madness comes to everyone’s favorite living room or drinking pavilion on Thursday, and we here at SixTalkingHeads are here to help you take home the money from all 27 (or more) pools you’ll be entering between now and game time. All you have to do is follow these golden rules.

Rule 1 - One of the #1 seeds will lose before the Final Four – This always happens. In fact, it's quite likely that two #1 seeds will fall before the Final Four. Since the field expanded to 64 teams, there has never been a Final Four consisting of all #1 seeds. This year’s best bets to fall are Kansas or North Carolina. Kansas could fall as early as round two, but if they move on they’ll be hard pressed to beat UCLA or Pitt in the Elite 8. North Carolina will have a tough second round match-up versus either Marquette or Michigan State. If they get past that game, their reward will be a date in the Sweet Sixteen with Texas and superstar freshman Mr. Kevin Durant. It’ll be a tough road for the Tar Heels this year.

Rule 2 – DO NOT pick a #1 or #2 seed to lose in the first round – It just doesn’t happen. #1 seeds are 88-0 since 1985 and #2 seeds are 84-4. This year’s #2 seeds are especially solid and all have something to prove. They will not lose in the first round. Do yourself a favor and don’t pick any upset of a #1 or #2 seed in the opening round..

Rule 3 – A #12 seed will beat a #5 seed in the first round – In each of the last 6 years, a #12 has beaten a #5. All 12 versus 5 games this year are very intriguing match-ups, so I certainly see this trend holding up. A great example could be Illinois versus Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech just doesn’t have the punch to counter Illinois tough defense. If Illinois can knock down some shots, they could easily advance to round two. Arkansas and Old Dominion are also legitimate threats as #12 seeds.

Rule 4 – Teams playing close to home have a HUGE advantage – This year North Carolina and Louisville open the first two rounds close to home. Pittsburgh, UCLA and Oregon all open in cities fairly close to home, or in places with great fan support. This cannot be underestimated. Fans in college basketball are a huge factor in their teams’ games, perhaps even more so than in any other sport in the country. If a team needs an x-factor, a couple thousand extra fans can be the additional weight needed to swing the momentum pendulum.

Rule 5 – Cinderella is not just a Disney movie – Cinderella is synonymous with the NCAA tournament. From Villanova in ’85 to George Mason in ’06, everyone loves an underdog. There are a few teams who could wear the glass slipper this season. Virginia Commonwealth, Winthrop, and Davidson could all ride huge waves of momentum if they can topple their higher ranked opponents (Duke, Notre Dame, and Maryland, respectively) in the opening round. They could be one hit wonders or they could ride on to the Elite 8 or better.

Rule 6 – Don’t get caught up in upsets – This is a fitting follow up to rule 5. Don’t start singing, “Cindarelly, Cindarelly” in your head. Yes, upsets will occur, but you will not win if you pick too many upsets. There are games primed for upsets such as Winthrop over Notre Dame and games that might just end up that way (Oral Roberts over Washington St?). The smart way to look at this is that higher teams will lose, but almost the entire public will chose the higher seed to win just like you did. You will not lose as much ground as you feel you did by missing the upset. The moral: pick your upsets wisely, not irrationally.

Rule 7 – Don’t underestimate teams you’ve never heard of – Yes, Oral Roberts is actually a college, not your local family dentist. George Washington is not taking on Vanderbilt all by his lonesome. These teams will play tough in the first round and could make you pay attention the rest of the way. There are also several teams that are not known for their basketball prowess, but could make some noise. For example, many people will be surprised to see Southern Illinois as a #4 seed, but they have a great shot to make a strong run to the Sweet 16 and beyond. However…

Rule 8 – Don’t fall in love with Mid-Major teams - While it is fun to root for teams like Southern Illinois or Butler, they are not the teams that will help you win. Both teams have a chance to be in the Sweet Sixteen, but don’t expect Final Four runs. The Mid-Major conferences have shown that they are starting to catch up to the bigger conferences, but they’re not quite there yet. Proceed with caution when looking at a big time school versus a mid-major such as a potential Kansas versus Southern Illinois game in the Sweet 16.

Rule 9 – Don’t forget about history – Heed the warning that “Those who don’t remember history are bound to repeat it.” Michigan State generally follows a bad tournament (2002, 2006) with a strong one (2003, 2007?). Florida usually follows a strong tournament (2000, 2006) with an early exit (2001, 2007?). Roy Williams, North Carolina’s head coach, has led multiple programs to the Final Four. Young teams often do not win championships (remember the Fab 5?) and that could spell trouble for Ohio State and Texas. UCLA knows how to win (11 titles), it’s in their blood. They could be the most dangerous #2 seed. The last team to repeat as National Champions was Duke in 1992, which spells more bad news for Florida.

Rule 10 – When in doubt, trust your gut – This year’s tournament is one of the more difficult brackets in recent memory. There are many games that could really go either way. If you think about it too much, you’ll go crazy. Don’t read too much into the comments from the experts (except us) or focus too much on obscure statistics. Sometimes you just have a hunch and you go with it. This can be your saving grace when you have to decide the winner of your UCLA versus Kansas match-up in the Elite Eight, or your North Carolina versus Texas Sweet Sixteen game. Trust your instincts, they’ll serve you well.


If you are starving for more information, here are some helpful links that could be great benefit to you in your search to bring home the big money this tournament season:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/ncaatourney07/index
http://teamrankings.com/ncbt/index.php
http://www.bostonsportshub.com/madness.htm

Get a bracket here
http://www.ncaasports.com/basketball/mens/brackets/viewable/2007












Good Luck!